Sellers Market Unhealthy, Unprecedented time for buyers

We saw more bad news in the papers last week with foreclosures rising 54% in Ingham County. New homes being started in the area through the third quarter are also down over 40%. Currently in Lansing as of today there are 5117 houses available for sale according to the MLS. Using the average of 366.5 sales per month year to date, this would mean we have almost 14 months of inventory currently on the market in the Greater Lansing area. It is no secret that the market has switched from a sellers to a buyers market.
Believe it or not this is one of the best times in the history of real estate for a buyer to purchase. The last time Lansing’s building permit numbers dropped this low was in 1982. Interest rates were through the roof and it was extremely difficult compared to today to get a mortgage. Even with the tightening of the market, there is a program for just about any one looking for a loan. I have seen some unbelievable deals on homes that have sold in the last few months. There are many different incentives and just regular price reductions that are going to allow many people who purchase right now a chance to have large equity positions in property in the future. We just came off of the longest run in housing growth in US history. Metaphorically, the new years party ended and it is currently mid morning Jan. 1st and the hangover is really setting in. Some people really tried to play the market, especially in some parts of the country were there was 15%-30% gains per year in housing value. They jumped in at the end and are currently getting burned. Michigan’s real estate market isn’t healthy if you are a seller, but in very few instances are the consequences of purchasing a home in our hottest markets of 2004 and 2005 going to have as much of an impact dollar wise as someone who purchased in Florida or California. One thing I will guarantee you, in the future, real estate will be more valuable than it is currently. I don’t have a crystal ball to tell you how to time the market and I don’t think that we are going to see the type of market we saw a few years ago for quite some time. Our area was overbuilt, financing got a little aggressive, and it is going to be hard for a while for some people to be able to get their money back out of there homes. However, we are seeing signs of the market stabilizing.
I have accumulated the building permit data for the area for the last 30+ years. It is easy to see to see the trend of the growth and then a sharp drop off for a few years. This would coincide with the existing home real estate market as well, since new homes are primarily needed when there is growth in an area. The easiest way to track new home growth is by looking at the employment growth in an area. The more job growth the more new construction that can be absorbed in a market area. Looking at jobs in the Greater Lansing area from 2000 to 2007, there were 10,000 jobs cut out of our market. This data was not seasonally adjusted, but it still shows a downward trend which would create a situation where existing housing stock would be in over supply, let alone adding new homes. New construction permits pulled were at record highs in 04-05 which has now caught up with us. The good news, we have seen employment numbers stabilize over the last year. This is a good sign for the market, because we should start to see our local market stabilize over time. For buyers right now, if you need a home there has never been a better time to find a good deal on a piece of property. When the market does stabilize and we start to see growth, people who purchase now are going to have the best chance of being in a great equity position in a few years. If you are thinking about real estate investing, now is the time to start researching properties and neighborhoods to learn values. With foreclosures at an all time high, interest rates at an all time low, and the new job announcements in Lansing and the surrounding area this market is showing signs of being healthy again faster than many of the other areas in Michigan. If you are interested in seeing what properties are available right how, please visit my website www.lansingrealestate.com, click on listings and MLS. You can either search properties my company currently has listed, or search all listings in the MLS by clicking on the MLS button in the upper right corner. If you are interested in government foreclosure homes, check out www.homesales.gov. This will give you the list of all the government foreclosed properties in the US. For strictly HUD homes in Michigan here is the link to Michigan broken down by cities. http://sales.clfres.com/SelectCities.aspx?State=MI&DollarExclusive=Y
If you are interested in viewing any of these homes, or have any questions regarding real estate investing or purchasing, please post a comment, or email me at brent@lansingrealestate.com. I will also be posting some of the podcasts that I listen to regarding real estate investing and real estate in general, as well as links to other sites I find useful.
Please let me know what other good sites are out there, I am always looking for more information. I am working on setting up to interviews regarding real estate investing. One from an investor that just purchased and flipped his first piece of property, and one from a gentleman who has been buying flipping and renting properties for quite some time. I hope to have these within a week.